The Rise and Next, the Fall of China

By Paul Stone

China—the land of mystery, ancient history, and economic chest-thumping that could rival the loudest gym bro at your local Planet Fitness.

For decades, the narrative has been clear: China’s rise as the world’s second-largest economy is unstoppable. But, oh, how the mighty are starting to wobble. Beneath the surface of its sprawling skyscrapers and record-breaking GDP growth lies an economic house of cards, ready to collapse in a way that would make even Wall Street circa 2008 blush. And let’s be honest, a shaky China isn’t just China’s problem—it’s a global problem, especially for the U.S., which finds itself in the crosshairs of a desperate Beijing.

Let’s start with the glaringly obvious: China’s real estate market is an absolute disaster. A circus with too many tents and strangely, not enough clowns.

Picture this—80 million vacant housing units, enough to house nearly the entire population of Germany. This isn’t just a market correction; it’s the kind of implosion that economists write horror stories about. Back in the 2010s, China’s housing market seemed like an endless party, with local governments raking in cash by selling land and developers throwing up high-rises faster than you could say “ghost city.” But now? Sales and new construction have cratered, leaving an economy built on debt wobbling like a drunk trying to find their car keys.

And the debt? Oh, honey, where do we even begin? China’s total borrowing—government, households, and corporations combined—is nearing 300% of its GDP. That’s not just unsustainable; that’s a level of excess that makes 2008’s Lehman Brothers meltdown look like a mere budgeting oversight. Add to this the “hidden” borrowing by local governments through shadowy financing vehicles, and you’ve got a recipe for financial devastation. When—not if—this economic fallacy goes off, the shockwaves will reverberate globally. Like tsunamis on every coast.

Okay, so what? Good riddance, right? Hmmm, ponder for yourself, if you achieved a no-one-is-even close to second place on the global hierarchy, would you let that go without jacking up everyone else’s world? Okay maybe – but now imagine you’re from a culture that would stab itself in the belly, cut east and back west until your guts spilled out from your abs all because you failed at something and brought dishonor. I believe China’s government creates a country, as far as that which is directed by the government, without honor. There’ll be many actions taken before supplication.

So, what does a desperate China look like? It’s a nasty playbook; I promise you that and it’s going to feel like Satan on Earth.

As economic dreams start slipping through their fingers, they won’t just shrug, sip some green tea, and accept their fate. No, they double down on the ultra-communist mantra of global domination, and their playbook isn’t exactly what you’d call “sportsmanlike.”

It’ll be ‘everything-everywhere-all-at-once” launched likely in an extremely efficient manner.

They’ve built the most comprehensive knowledge base from the decades old campaigns of cyber-espionage, intellectual property theft, outright economic and militaristic bullying on the global stage to set up the pins where they want them. Beijing’s strategy screams, “If we can’t win, alongside you, we will win by crushing you.”

Remember the days when being a global superpower was about innovation, grit and a healthy dose of neighborliness?

Yeah, China missed that memo. Instead, they’ve opted for what can only be described as geopolitical cheat codes. From undercutting international trade agreements to running illegal surveillance operations, their approach is less about fair competition and more about ensuring everyone else stumbles. It’s like the economic version of Tonya Harding taking a crowbar to Nancy Kerrigan’s knee—except this time, Nancy is the U.S. economy.

China’s manufacturing dominance is often touted as its greatest strength, but let’s not forget how it got there. Hint: It wasn’t all through grit and hard work. Decades of outsourcing by Western corporations handed Beijing a golden ticket to become the factory to the world. Now, as that dominance starts to fray, they’re scrambling to maintain control. Industrial overcapacity has left Chinese producers desperate to offload goods, sparking global trade tensions that make the U.S.-China tariff wars look like a warm-up act.

But it doesn’t stop at trade. Desperation has led Beijing to flex its muscles in ways that have alarmed not just Washington but much of the world. Whether it’s saber-rattling in the South China Sea, crushing the semi-autonomous existence of Hong Kong, or threatening Taiwan, China’s increasingly aggressive posture isn’t just about regional dominance—it’s about distracting from its own economic mess.

Here’s the thing: China’s economic model is a bizarre Frankenstein’s monster of state-driven capitalism and Communist Party control. It’s worked—for a while. But the cracks are showing, and they’re impossible to ignore.

Unlike the Soviet Union, which imploded without a significant manufacturing base, China’s collapse would ripple through global supply chains, destabilizing economies far beyond its borders. In other words, when China sneezes, the world catches a cold—and right now, Beijing is looking mighty feverish.

The grand irony? For all its bluster about overtaking the U.S., China’s economic model has never operated on a truly level playing field. Its rise was fueled by foreign investment, stolen intellectual property, and a global economy that’s been far too accommodating. Now, as it faces the reality of slowing growth, a bloated real estate sector, and crushing debt. The prospect of achieving global dominance is slipping further out of reach. If history has taught us anything, it’s that a cornered regime doesn’t go down quietly.

For America and its citizens, China’s troubles are a double-edged sword. On one hand, a weakened Beijing means less competition in the race for global economic supremacy. On the other, China’s desperation, if acted upon would trigger moves that eliminate liquidity from the entire global economy.

Think current trade wars times a thousand. In America, 70% of our economy exists because of consumer spending money, on things, mostly, made by China. So, if China realizes it can’t overcome its internal erosion, it just quits making stuff - knowing its overdone like Imelda Marcos’ shoe collection. Implosion is guaranteed.

So implode America at the same time by killing our spending action with nothing to spend the money on. Now add in, cyberattacks targeting critical societal like banking and airlines plus militaristic infrastructure, by means of their super-computing ability.

Currently, China’s military supercomputer tops global rankings, clocks 6,320 MTEPS/W which has been reported to be 50x more powerful than Google’s. This kind of processing power uses light - not chips like you are used to for computational power. It would run through any firewall in existence. Like a Caterpillar D9 through a one-hundred-year-old barn.

Then there’s the military conflicts that disrupt key trade routes, or annihilate our communications via knocking out our satellites. Yes, theirs too. But which nation do you think is fine with the dark ages, China or America?

The U.S. may have the upper hand for now, but complacency is not an option, however that’s Washington’s number one product. They will be not suddenly be different. If you watch sports, you know the Jets can’t be any different - it’s their owner - Washington can’t be any different, it’s the same ineffective officials every election. Nothing personal, it’s just the damn track record. Apologies? No. If one’s feelings are hurt by that, when banks start accepting feelings as deposits, I’ll adjust.

Washington needs to brace for impact. Diversifying supply chains, strengthening cybersecurity defenses, and forging stronger alliances with like-minded nations are just the start. The reality is that China’s decline doesn’t mean the U.S. can sit back and relax. If anything, it’s a wake-up call to ensure that America’s own economic foundation remains strong.

Here is a WARNING: China’s rise to economic power was nothing short of meteoric, but its fall may be equally dramatic.

For decades, the narrative was that Beijing’s ascent was inevitable, its dominance unchallengeable. But the cracks in the facade are now too big to ignore. Whether it’s the bursting of the real estate bubble, the crushing weight of debt, or the desperate measures of a regime unwilling to concede defeat, China’s trajectory is anything but certain.

For the rest of the world, and especially for the U.S., this is both a moment of reckoning and an opportunity. The threat from China isn’t just economic; it’s geopolitical, technological, and ideological. As Beijing flounders, its actions will likely grow more erratic and unpredictable.

The question isn’t if China’s challenges will impact the world, but how prepared you are to weather the storm?

So, buckle up, Buttercup - the era of China’s “unstoppable” rise is over, and the fallout is going to be everything you hoped to only ever see in a horror movie.